Sanlorenzo S.p.A. Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Caster:

To everybody, thank you for coming to our press. I will give the floor to our CFO, Attilio Bruzzese. As you know, we are at the table with Piero Coaviva, which is our general director for corporate, and even Puto Fella, our head of investor-in-later relationship with you. So, thank you very much Massimo, and welcome to everyone.

Attilio Bruzzese — CFO:

First of all, preliminary key figures are confirmed and looking at the highlights. San Lorenzo Group continues its expansion into the full year 2024 result, with all metrics in line or exceeding the last guidance 2024. This is confirmed for organic and consolidated perimeter after the acquisition of 2024 for the sea and out of Zvon. And then in particular, analyzing the indicators, net revenue in New York’s growth 10.7% at 930.4 million euro, driven by the excellent performance by SuperYod Division and good results in Americas and in the region. EBDA increased plus 12% at 176.4 million euro, and margin on net revenue in New York’s, which did a very important percentage of 19%. EBIT at 139.3 million euro increased 10.6% year on year at 15% net revenue in New York’s. Organic investments for 49.3 million euro, mainly related to the increase in production capacity and new product development, with a constant incidence year on year on net revenue in New York’s of 5.3%. Then the net financial position at 112.8 million euro, net cash end of December 2024 before M&A and buyback plan, with a cash absorption of the 27.7 million euro in 12 months 2024, net of the organic investment and dividend paid for 34.8 million euro. About the business growth, you can see that we may confirm the validity of the San Lorenzo business model, in particular in terms of expansion of revenues, preserving scarcity and upselling over time. In fact, delivery were 69 yachts on 2024, with a turnover of 800 million euro, so with the neighborhood net revenues per yacht delivered of 11.6 million euro. About profitability, considering we have already analyzed EBDA and EBIT, we can analyze more in detail the record level of the net group profit at 103.1 million euro. This is about four times the amount of 2019 after the IPO. That confirm the long term vision of the group, the margin you can see is 11.1% on net revenue in New York’s and 11.5% as organic perimeter before the consolidation of swans, so is modest the impact of the swan in terms of margins dilution. Net financial income are around 2 million euro, considering the good treasury management and relatively modest cost of debt. Referring to the taxes, the effective 2024 tax rate is 27.1%, compared with the theoretical rate of 27.9, reflecting the fiscal benefits we had. Therefore, it’s proposed a dividend distribution of 1 euro per share, around 34% payout on group consolidated net profit, and the EPS is 2.92 euro. About cash generation, you can see net cash reached a level of 112.8 million euro, before M&A and buyback program, with a cash absorption of around 27.7 million euro year on year, after dividend payment of 34.8 million euro. The reported net cash is 29.1 million euro, after the extraordinary elements already analyzed, and it includes IFR 16 net liabilities for 25.5 million euro, versus 9 million euro as of December 2023. Networking capital in 2024 is 36 million euro positive, at 3.9 on net revenue in New York, especially considering the support to the new direct distribution in upper region with the St. Mary, and the extension of the direct distribution in Europe and America’s regions. Therefore, a total of 42.3 million euro are returned to the shareholders, considering dividend distribution and net buyback in H2 2024. Now about Gagas, considering the net backlog and 2024 of 1.020 million euro, 88% sold to final customer, but also the external issues due to the strong uncertainty in the global context of geopolitical and microeconomic. We continue adopting a measured approach also for these 2025 guidance. For the top line, Nautilus Juan is the main driver of the further uplift in the net revenue 2025, and of course the guidance marginality for 2025 reflects 12 months consolidation of Nautilus Juan instead of 5 months 2024. Underlining group profitability, X1 seeing expanding, considering that Nautilus Juan corresponded to a margin dilution of approximately 0.7%. Therefore, the top line grows plus 6%, as a midpoint in the range 960 million euro, to 1.020 million euro. ABDA grows 5% as midpoint of the range 178, 194 million euro, and then EBIT grows 3% in the range 139, 149 million euro. And the group net profit grows 3%, as midpoint of the range 103, 110 million euro, and then CAPEX 2025 are in the range 4850 million euro, at 4.9% on net revenue New York. In any case, consider that the backlog end of December 2024 cover 63% of the guidance 2025. Now we have analyzed the financial result and I leave the floor to Massimo to continue with the guidance, comments and business items.

Massimo Perotti — CEO:

Yes, thank you, Attilio. Well, I think there is not much to hand. You have been introducing the matter perfectly. As always, I think you know Hans since five years now. We are conservative and the guidance has been produced in consideration of the existing overall environment. So we have a top line, which is perfectly in line with the growing expected, and we have the left side numbers, which is produced by San Lorenzo in order to be solid, and as I said, conservative. And if we have to see to judge the first two months of 2025, we had already four more show, Dusseldorf, which is the middle of January, and then Miami, middle of February, and Istanbul in Turkey around 20th of February, and Dubai. Well, we had quite nice contact and negotiation, but some of them are still in standby. They are in standby because the situation of the war in Ukraine and the declaration of the President of the United States is creating a bit of uncertainty, and therefore we must consider that, you know, this could be something that will stand for the next month, it’s depending how long it will stand. So we have to consider that little risk in the 2025 business. Consider that the number of the guidance are covered with both sold 88% to final customer for 63%. That is practically two-thirds of the volume of 2025 is already covered, most of it with the final client. With final client means we have more than 20%, 30% deposit in our bank, and this is giving quite a strong, solid support to the numbers. But as we said, we like to be conservative and see what will be the next month. The rest of the numbers are coming from the situation of the company that you know already pretty well. As you see here, our total backlog at 31st December 24th, let’s say the gross backlog was 1.95, which is close to 2 billion, then discharging the net revenue New York of 2024. We have a net backlog at the end of 2024, which is more than 1 billion. It is approximately 1.0 of the coverage of the volume of 2025. And we have a nice 623 million of both sold equal to 63% of the coverage of 2025. And then 397, almost 400 million for 26 and 27. So this is quite a nice situation. Of course, there are also the possibility of boost because in case of termination of the war in Ukraine, we have already contacted a lot of Russian customers who contacted us in the last two months, very positively saying that in their opinion the war will finish soon, and they already booked a visit in the shipyard to see the new product and innovation, the new design of the San Lorenzo product, the San Lorenzo boom. So one side there is some uncertainty due to the political situation, the geopolitical situation, but from the other side there is the possibility of a boost of the business probably by the second semester. Age two could be important. And you know that we have in September the three important boat show. And that will be for sure a very important moment for 2025, but not only 2026 as well. This is overall a comment. Here you have the two new business divisions. We are starting one in Nautilus one, which is the aluminum sailing yachts we call Super Maxi or Maxi Maxi in alloy, that will probably be built in Garegio or close to Garegio. And then in Blue Game we have a new line of product which is coming from the technology of the tender we built for the American Scarp. We call it the cruiser foil. It is Blue Game BGF, F is for foil. That range will start to be presented in the market by 2026. We are working very hard to start a new line of aluminum sail yacht. You can see the first picture. This is a very nice 42 meter in aluminum. It is S1 with a very strong heritage. The designer is Marco Macchion, which is one of the best guys in the market today. We have already very, very close customer, this is an Italian customer that we will probably, we hope to close by the end of the month. And this will be part of the growth of the revenue of the first line of S1. Consider that our forecast for 25, 26, 27 is to grow from 100, 110 million to 150, 160 million. And more than 50% of the growth will come from this line of product. There is a good strong market coming for the Maxi from 40 to 60 meter in alloy. You know the technology and the history of S1 in Finland was a very high-tech carbon production. They had no idea, no technology to build aluminum boat. The aluminum boat will be built close to our shipyard in Ereggio and in Stathia. So that kind of line of product could not be developed by the S1 before the acquisition of San Lorenzo. Now we have the technology to go to aluminum to bigger boat and we will do it because that is our market. We are pleased to announce you that we signed last Saturday, the 8th of March, an agreement with Edmiston, which is one of the top brokerage arms with the collaboration of Bruce Brekino, which used to sell Perini boats in America for 30 years. And now they will both Edmiston and Bruce will sell the Super Maxi S1 from the important office in Newport. The announcement of this agreement will be next Saturday at St Bart, where we have the bucket, which is the Super Maxi Regatta organized in the Caribbean from all the builders. That will be the moment, it will be Saturday 15th, it will be the moment we will announce to the market that there is news that has been, you know, the counter has been signed two days ago, Saturday. But they think that is a sign of strong impact of San Lorenzo in this one world. But this is just showing you the growing of the super rich, which is our market. And then…

Caster:

Yeah, if I may, just a brief comment. This is the most updated UBS now, not Credit Suisse anymore, for obvious reasons, projections of the U.T.W. worth individuals in the world. We outlined some very interesting trends by geography where North America still in absolute number is by far the region where is expected the highest creation of a number of ultra high net worth, which is ultimately one of the main structures of the industry growth. Remember, number of individuals and penetration rates, so a combination of the two factors, compared to the previous estimates that we outlined in the business plan 2022-2025, where the average growth per annum of the number of individuals was around 24,000. The estimates have actually been increased by UBS to around 26,000 with half of the growth coming from North America. I’ll be back to UBS. Thank you.

Massimo Perotti — CEO:

The last thing you know about our investment in America, we will move to a new office at Pier 66 in Fort Lauderdale. It’s a fantastic place. It is a very important whole heritage hotel in Fort Lauderdale that has been completely rebuilt. We have one floor as San Lorenzo, Blue Game and Swan Office in Florida. And then we have the Sagalbor office, and we are planning in the future to open an office in the area of New York, probably in 2025 or 2026. The agreement with American Magic, as you know, we signed the letter of intent, a term sheet with them, to build the clubs 128 and more, 3643, which is the racing yacht, the racing sailboat we built in Finland. We will move that production in Pensacola, where American Magic is doing a huge investment for production, for technical office, and development for the new American Scab boat, but also an academy to start, to teach to the young guy in America to go sailing. So it would be a fantastic project to be developed together with American Magic, which is the most known and technological group of people in sail yacht in America. We are very proud of both agreement with American Magic for the south of Florida and with Endy Stone and Bruce for Newport in the northeast of the United States. Well, I think we can move the floor to you. This is just a confirmation of the growing of the methanol and hydrogen business to confirm our road to 2030. As you know, we did the 50 meter with the hydrogen methanol fuel cell from Siemens, and for 2027 we will have the first 50 meter with the B fuel engine from MAN, as been declared the project at the Dushan-Dobo show. We will be the first ship here in the world to have the methanol engine for the propulsion of the 50 meter. Okay, I think that we finished. The floor is yours. Any questions you may have?

Unnamed Speaker:

Yes. Good evening. Thank you for taking my questions. I got three questions. The first one is on M&A. Do you plan to be active this year? And if so, what types of assets might interest you? The second question is on dividend policy. Do you intend to confirm current payout for next year? And the first question is on the guidance for the 2025. What assumptions are incorporated with respect to revenue from services and swan revenues? Thank you.

Massimo Perotti — CEO:

Regarding M&A, we do not have any important goal for 2025, except for possibly a shipyard to establish the new division of swan for the supermax. That would be in the region of Vierreggio because there is a fantastic supplier list. Thanks to the 45 years of perinical traction in Vierreggio, we like to capitalize for the construction of the supermax in swan. Remember, we did two important acquisitions, Simson Marine in Asia Pacific and Swan in Finland. Both acquisitions have been quite complex and difficult to manage because they are far away from Italy. This is the first important acquisition in the history of San Lorenzo. We had to adjust and develop the inside of our corporate organization in order to control these two companies, one in Finland and one in the other side of the world. The Asia Pacific is a good opportunity for the future, but it’s quite difficult because there are many countries with different laws, different traditions, and quite far away from one from the other. We have 13 sales offices and 10 service points to be organized all together, and it is quite complex. We do not think for 25 to have any major acquisition, we have to organize the company to become very efficient in the organization of swan and in the distribution in Asia Pacific. Regarding dividend, I didn’t understand your question. Conferred dividend policy also for next year?

Caster: Well, yes.

Massimo Perotti — CEO:

Consider that in the guidance we are expecting a net profit which will grow from 103 to 110. So we will for sure maintain the same policy which has been declared at the time of the IPO, which is between 30 and 40% of the net profit to be used for dividend. We did confirm one euro per share in 2024 for the 2024 result, and this is remarkable, it is important because please consider we’ve invested more than 83 million in M&A. So in consideration of the heavy investment in new business, we keep the same dividend and also consider that the ratio between one euro and the value of the share of 31 euro today is different than one euro in relation to the 40 euro value of the shares one year ago. So in percentage we are giving a dividend which is much more important than last year. So the policy of the dividend will be kept for 2025 as well. And about the revenues 2025 for swan, we can consider an amount in the region of 100 million euro.

Attilio Bruzzese — CFO:

And about services, we are in the range between 35 and 40 million euro.

Mr. Gerard: Great. Thank you very much.

Speaker from BNP:

Hi, good afternoon. I’m just a speaker from BNP. I hope you can hear me well. Yes, we hear you. Thanks for the really clear presentation and the outlook. So before we’re discussing about clients these days being a bit more reluctant, let me say, in finally signing in the contract, is there any divergent trend between different nationalities or it’s just common across all the people basically? And the second question links to that is in the current context that is difficult, I would say, at least volatile. What is the level of order that you think is satisfactory for you to get this year? Well, the satisfactory level of order, it is very hard to say.

Massimo Tildio Augustes — CEO:

At the beginning of March, considering the last 30 days of every day different declaration from the President of the United States, it’s really hard to have a fixed number and expectation. This is the reason of the prudent guidance we gave for 2025. The problem of the client today is not that they don’t want to buy the boat. They want to buy the boat. They just like to wait a few weeks more or maybe one month more just to understand what will be the real politic coming from the United States, but not only. Consider that the German election was very important as well. The French approach to Europe is very important. So every day there is quite important declaration from both sides of the Atlantic in the Western world. So that is a reason of a little uncertainty and so people like to wait to have a better color of what will be the world in the future. Everything depends how long this will stay in this situation. If that situation we stay for many months, then it will be more problematic to increase the order intake. If that situation we stay for the next 30 days and inside of it we have the end of the Ukraine war, then the whole atmosphere will change completely. The boat show we had, the four boat show we had was not bad. There was people coming, discussing with the will to buy the boat, but only some people discharged the will to buy the boat with the concert and the deposit. We have some people who signed the concert, signed the electoral vintage, but they are waiting a bit for the deposit. And therefore the first quarter can hand by the end of March with maybe a bit less order intake than 2024, because of this special 30 days of action from Mr. Trump, but also from the election of Germany. You know, Friday there was a declaration from the future Prime Minister of Germany with an important program of 500 billion of investment in infrastructure, which was a very strong point from Germany. We have 800 million of investment in the re-harming of Europe. This is another very important point for our customer. Remember, our customers are in terminal and 60% of our business is in Europe. The fact that the dollar moved from 1.5 to 1.8 in 48 hours, I think it is a good sign of how Europe could be stronger than expected. That for us is very important aside of whatever Mr. Trump does, because we have 15% of the market in America and we have 60% of our market in Europe. So the Europe reaction to what is happening today from French and German, I think are quite important for the 2025 guidance and ordering take.

Speaker from BNP: Thanks. Thanks for your answers.

Massimo Perotti — CEO:

Like I mean the different clients. No, I think that is more or less the same spirit from Europe to the United States to Turkey. I think probably the only market which is oversized overreacting positively is Dubai. For sure the Middle East is in a very, very good positive mood. As you see our cake last year, from last year to this year, we increased more than 100% the volume of business in Middle East. And that is the sounding that is confirmed for 2025 as well. There is a lot of action, a lot of good positive mood from Dubai. It has been the best boat show out of the four boat show that we did.

Speaker from BNP: Very clear. Thanks again. You’re welcome.

Caster:

Okay. We have some questions first in the chapter from Jackson Roy. Hi, Jackson. And then we will go to Nicola. There’s the hand raised. The questions from Jackson’s from Jackson. If one is 100 millions around 100 million revenues, I guess, and services 35. 37.5 million implies yacht super yacht blue game would be flat to down in 2025, which segment is suffering the most. We first I just clarify that the services there are not including the guidance because we guide on the top line only on revenues New York’s and from the remaining comments I would leave it to Mr. Perotti Attilio.

Massimo Perotti — CEO:

So which segment will be best performing and which would be we see most suffering. Well, for sure the boat below 24 meter are suffering more than the other. If we go on the bigger side, the boat below 30 meter is suffering more and the boat below 40 meter is suffering more. So as much as you go up to 50, 60 meter, I have no clue and no vision of what is happening on the under meat 80 meter boat because we do not build that boat. The market to 70 meter, the market from 50 to 70 meter is stronger than the market from 40 to 50 meter and the market from 40 to 50 meter is stronger than the market from 30 to 40 meter. So we have to say yacht division, which is mainly both above 30 meter will be no bad. The super yacht business will be good but cannot improve much because we have at 100% or 100% of the use of our production capacity. As you see in 2024 we had an increase of almost 70% in the super yacht business. So we are at the limit of our capacity. Blue game and the small swan boat are suffering more and this is something that we have to concentrate more effort and push more with our dealer and with our direct distribution. Regarding the guidance, consider that 2024 930 was including 40 million from five months consolidation of swan. So the organic volume of 2024 between San Lorenzo and Blue Game was 890. If you consider the average, the medium position of the guidance, we are at 990 less 100 million from swan. We go back to 890 which is not a reduction but is a flat situation. So in consideration of the geopolitical environment we consider to have a guidance with the middle point to be flat in respect of 2024, which is a confirmation after such a big grow in the last five years. But in case the situation will improve, as I said in the next 30 days, 45 days with the war in Ukraine or whatever, we may go to the hapen side of the fork of the guidance or maybe even more. We have been conservative and I like to confirm to you that this is always the approach of San Lorenzo to the guidance, to the numbers and to the relationship with the investor. Nicola, we cannot hear you. Can you hear us? Maybe we should call him.

Mr. Nicola:

How comes there is not an F financial position guidance for this year? I would leave it to Attilio. I think it is written down by the actually flat with the range. So why are the CapEx flat considering that there is also one in the group and if you can give some color on the evolution of working capital?

Massimo Perotti — CEO:

Yes, I think it is important. I reply well considered that we have been investing approximately 50 million every year except for the COVID here. And we consider the investment enough for the existing growth situation. Remember that our three-year plan was related to high-single digit growth, not anything exorbitant. The high-single digit growth was supported by the CapEx of approximately 50 million per year. For 2025 you see that our CapEx is less than 5% of the revenue. We consider that pretty good for the investment, for our capacity to production of cash and to conversion of cash to our deal. In this moment we do not see for the future a very important increase in volume in our business overall but also because the strategy and the philosophy of Sandoval Hensworn is a tactical growth. The next step is a concentration of a bit more than volume. As we said before, we will have probably an investment in acquisition of a shipyard for the production of the super maxi but consider that by the time the project of the new boat is finished and we produce the metal hull, we will be already in 2026. So the production of the new shipyard could be either by the second semester of 25 or most probably the first semester of 26. So we are not in the hurry to spend more money in CapEx. The existing CapEx is a perfect in line with the growth of the company and the situation of the market.

Attilio Bruzzese — CFO: And about services, we are in the range between 35 and 40 million euro. — CFO: Yes, about the networking capital and the net financial position. We consider that they are very strictly linked. Then consider that in particular for the networking capital we will have an evolution for the next months consistent with the seasonality of the business. In particular for Q1 2024-25 with an absorption of the cash in this next quarter. After this for 2025 we think that inventory linked to the direct distribution could be reduced especially starting from H2 2025. Therefore we expect to come back to a positive free cash flow for the end of 2025 to return dividend to the shareholders as anticipated by Mr. Perotti. And we think that it will be possible to give more colors in the next months considering the evolution of the business.

Caster: Perfect. I see Mr. Gerard with the raised hand.

Mr. Gerard:

Do you hear me now? Yes. Kehera Bleske from Cursonside. I have just one question concerning community tariffs from the United States. What would be the effects of tariff areas from the United States? The tariff problem for the standalone range of products which is more than about 24 meters which is a pleasure ship. We consider zero because there is almost no production locally in America of such product.

Massimo Perotti — CEO:

Therefore we think that Mr. Trump will not concentrate the tariff on product where he is not to defend the local production and the local Americans. You cannot say American first on yacht about 24 meters because simply they don’t build it. It’s possible if the tariff would become a problem that would be a problem of our customer. That could be. But you know the matter is really very skeptical. I mean there is a lot of announcement but then little to do a little done. And we do think that Mr. Trump will consider the relationship with Europe and the kind of product Europe is sporting to America. Most of the products produced in Europe are not produced in America. So aside of some fields like car, industry and few others there is not a lot of competition between the product imported by Europe and the product produced in America. So it could be a problem but most probably we think there will not be a problem with the European country. The problem with China could be bigger but we have almost zero business in China so we have absolutely no problem in that scenario. With Mexico and Canada we sell probably one boost per year so again if that business or that economy will be damaged by tariff we do not really feel we will be damaged or we will have important remarkable market reduction. So I think the tariff matter is not really on the table. It is on the table the uncertainty. It is on the table the feeling of the people. This is something that can affect the timing of the confirmation of the contract and deposit and so forth. So this is something that we will see in the next two, three months. H125 could be problematic but then remember we have 1 billion and 20 million of backlog, 88% to final client and that is a nice bridge to 2026, 2027. Thank you very much for your time. Good night. We will see you in different meetings. We will have in March and April. Thanks for your attention. Thanks to follow Saint Lorenzo all the time.

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Please beware that the transcribtion might not be perfect and some minor mistakes might be present.

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